Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
